How well do you know the polls in Germany?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 45 for 4 November 2026.
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1To the nearest point, what share of the vote did SPD win at Germany's 2021 election?
25.7%. See the page
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2At which election since 2000 were Germany's final polls closest to the result?
2021: 0.7 points out per party on average. See the page
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3How many seats does our forecast give CDU/CSU in the Bundestag in Germany?
148 in our projection. See the page
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4At Germany's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
SPD: 15.2% in the final polls, 16.4% on the day. See the page
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5At Germany's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.2 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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6Which party has lost most support since Germany's last election (23 February 2025)?
CDU/CSU: 28.5% then, 20.5% in our average now (−8.0 points). See the page
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7In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “FDP clears 5%”?
24%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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8Which pollster's final polls have been closest to the result in Germany?
Wahlkreisprognose: 0.8 points out per party on average over 2 elections, the best of 4. See the page
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9In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens majority”?
97%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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10Who leads the polls in Germany?
AfD on 27.4% in our average, ahead of CDU/CSU on 20.5%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.