How well do you know the polls in Canada?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 45 for 4 November 2026.
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1Who leads the polls in Canada?
Liberal on 46.2% in our average, ahead of Conservative on 30.7%. See the page
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2How many seats does our forecast give Liberal in the House of Commons in Canada?
235 in our projection, a majority (172 needed). See the page
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3At Canada's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
Conservative: 38.9% in the final polls, 41.3% on the day. See the page
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4At Canada's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.5 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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5At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls furthest out?
2004: 2.0 points out per party on average. See the page
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6To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Conservative win at Canada's 2021 election?
33.7%. See the page
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7At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls closest to the result?
2000: 0.4 points out per party on average. See the page
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8In Canada, what chance does our forecast give for “NDP reaches 12 seats (party status)”?
36%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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9Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2025 election?
Liberal with 43.8%, ahead of Conservative on 41.3%. See the page
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10To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Conservative win at Canada's 2019 election?
34.3%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.