How well do you know the polls in Germany?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 16 for 3 November 2026.
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1Who leads the polls in Germany?
AfD on 27.6% in our average, ahead of CDU/CSU on 20.6%. See the page
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2At Germany's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Greens: 13.0% in the final polls, 11.6% on the day. See the page
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3At Germany's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.2 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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4Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2017 election?
CDU/CSU with 32.9%, ahead of SPD on 20.5%. See the page
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5At Germany's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
SPD: 15.2% in the final polls, 16.4% on the day. See the page
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6How many seats does our forecast give CDU/CSU in the Bundestag in Germany?
148 in our projection. See the page
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7In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens”?
97%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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8How many seats does our forecast give AfD in the Bundestag in Germany?
199 in our projection, 117 short of a majority. See the page
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9To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2017 election?
32.9%. See the page
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10In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “FDP clears 5%”?
24%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.