How well do you know the polls in Canada?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 16 for 3 November 2026.
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1To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2025 election?
43.8%. See the page
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2Which party has lost most support since Canada's last election (28 April 2025)?
Conservative: 41.3% then, 30.5% in our average now (−10.8 points). See the page
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3At Canada's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
NDP: 8.5% in the final polls, 6.3% on the day. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Conservative win at Canada's 2019 election?
34.3%. See the page
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5At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls furthest out?
2004: 2.0 points out per party on average. See the page
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6Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2015 election?
Liberal with 39.5%, ahead of Conservative on 31.9%. See the page
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7Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2025 election?
Liberal with 43.8%, ahead of Conservative on 41.3%. See the page
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8How many seats does our forecast give Liberal in the House of Commons in Canada?
236 in our projection, a majority (172 needed). See the page
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9In Canada, what chance does our forecast give for “NDP reaches 12 seats (party status)”?
33%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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10At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls closest to the result?
2000: 0.4 points out per party on average. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.