Only a repeat of 2023's polling miss would cost the right its majority
PiS and the two Konfederacjas have 240 seats in our projection. If the polls miss like 2023, they fall to 226 and the governing coalition, with the PSL back in the Sejm, reaches 234.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
In 2023 the polls underestimated the parties that went on to form the government, and overestimated the right. Our projection takes Polish polls as published, without a correction. But we replay every past miss on today's figures.
Every past miss, replayed
- Like 2023: KO 195, PiS 128, Konfederacja 57, Braun's party 41, the Lewica 14 and the PSL 25. PiS and the two Konfederacjas have 226, short of 231. KO, the Lewica and the PSL have 234, a majority.
- Like 2019: KO 201, PiS 124, Konfederacja 70, Braun's party 49, the Lewica 16. The right has 243.
- Like 2015: KO 199, PiS 134, the right 241.
- Like 2005: KO falls to 155, the Lewica rises to 42, Razem enters with 17. The right has 240.
The 2023 miss is the only one that changes the majority. What makes the difference is not KO's own score but the PSL: in that replay it clears the threshold and wins 25 seats.
Why the threshold matters so much
In our central projection the PSL is below 5 per cent and wins nothing, so its votes are wasted. The same is true of Razem and Polska 2050. Each party that falls just short hands seats to the larger parties, and at the moment most of those seats go to the right.
So the question for the governing coalition is less how far KO leads than whether its partners clear 5 per cent. In the last month the PSL has been on 2.2 to 5.5 per cent depending on the pollster.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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