Polls have underestimated the PVV before. A 2023 repeat would make it the largest party again
PRO leads the PVV by 8 seats in our projection. If the polls miss as they did in 2023, the PVV would win 28 seats and PRO 27.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
PRO is the largest party in 88 per cent of our simulations. The other 12 per cent come mostly from one thing: Dutch polls have underestimated the PVV before, and by a lot.
In November 2023 the final polls had the PVV well short of the 37 seats it won. They caught the late swing late, and too little of it.
Every past miss, replayed
We apply each past miss to today's polls.
- Like 2023: the PVV 28 seats, PRO 27. The PVV is the largest party again.
- Like 2010: the PVV 26, PRO 28.
- Like 2012, when the polls underestimated the VVD and the PvdA: PRO 31, the VVD 19, the PVV 17.
- Like 2017: the VVD 21, PRO 25, the PVV 18.
- Like 2025: PRO 25, the PVV 21, D66 and the VVD 18 each.
So the gap at the top is smaller than our central projection of 28 to 20 suggests. In most misses PRO stays first. In the one most like the last close election, it does not.
Why JA21 matters
JA21 is the other half of the story. It is on 18 seats in our projection, and on 10 to 13 per cent in the October polls. In most of the misses above it barely moves, between 18 and 20 seats. The right's combined total stays near 50 seats whichever way the polls are wrong; what changes is which party on the right leads it.
You can test any result yourself with our coalition calculator.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
Elsewhere on Polling Forecast
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Liaison and Nanos have the NDP on 13.6 to 14 per cent; Abacus and Léger on 8 to 9. At 8 the party would hold a handful of seats; at 14 it starts to win back some it lost in 2025.
Only a repeat of 2023's polling miss would cost the right its majority
PiS and the two Konfederacjas have 240 seats in our projection. If the polls miss like 2023, they fall to 226 and the governing coalition, with the PSL back in the Sejm, reaches 234.