A year after his win, Jetten's cabinet is down to 39 to 44 seats in the polls
The D66, VVD and CDA minority cabinet won 66 seats in 2025. Our projection now gives it 44; Maurice de Hond has it on 39. PRO is the largest party.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Rob Jetten's D66 won the October 2025 election, and his minority cabinet of D66, the VVD and the CDA started with 66 of the 150 seats. A year on, the polls put it far lower.
- Maurice de Hond (25 October): D66 16, VVD 12, CDA 11. The cabinet has 39 seats, down from 42 at the start of October.
- Verian (26 October): D66 9.4 per cent, VVD 10.3, CDA 9.3.
- Ipsos I&O (14 October): D66 10.1, VVD 9.9, CDA 8.3.
Our projection
PRO, the party formed from GroenLinks and the PvdA, leads on 17.8 per cent and would win 28 seats. The PVV would win 20, JA21 18, D66 16, the VVD 15, the CDA 13 and Forum voor Democratie 13. The cabinet parties together would have 44.
D66 has fallen from 12.6 to 10.1 per cent in our average in a month. JA21 is up 6 points on the last election. PRO is the largest party in 88 per cent of our simulations.
The right
The PVV, JA21 and FvD together would have 51 seats in our projection, more than the cabinet. De Hond also has them on 51. None of them supports the cabinet, so its legislation depends on deals with the opposition on each bill.
The next national test is the provincial elections in March 2027. The provincial councils then elect the Senate, where the cabinet also lacks a majority.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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