Italy General electionby 22 Dec 2027in 430 days Calendar Track record Research
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New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →
Analysis Polls had Five Star 3.3 points too high at Italian regionals Italy's 42% bonus hinges on where Vannacci's party stands Every article
Italy · collegi

The 147 former collegi: who leads where

All 400 seats of Italy's Camera dei Deputati, each with our projection and its past results; today Centre-left 222 seats, with 201 needed for a majority.

Under the new electoral law these are no longer seats: every seat is shared out by national vote, with a bonus for a coalition that comes first with 42%. The table shows which coalition leads in each of the 147 collegi of 2022, which is where each one's vote is strong. The new law →

How good is the collegio step? Projected from the 2018 vote with the true national change, 2022 came out with the right winner in 128 of 146 collegi. It missed most where the M5S held up in the south and in the split cities, where our 2018 base is only the city average. The test → · Senate collegi →

How many of the 2022 collegi each coalition leads in every region under our projection; the small figure is the change on 2022. Under the new electoral law these are no longer seats: they show where each coalition's vote is strong.

RegionCollegi Centre-right Centre-left SVP M5S Others
Abruzzo3 1 −2 2 +2
Basilicata1 0 −1 1 +1
Calabria5 2 −2 3 +3 0 −1
Campania14 0 −7 14 +14 0 −7
Emilia-Romagna11 2 −5 9 +5
Friuli-Venezia Giulia3 2 −1 1 +1
Lazio14 7 −5 7 +5
Liguria4 1 −2 3 +2
Lombardia23 18 −3 5 +3
Marche4 2 −2 2 +2
Molise1 0 −1 1 +1
Piemonte10 6 −3 4 +3
Puglia10 0 −9 10 +10 0 −1
Sardegna4 0 −4 4 +4
Sicilia12 0 −10 12 +12 0 −1 0 −1
Toscana9 1 −6 8 +6
Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol4 0 −2 2 +2 2
Umbria2 1 −1 1 +1
Valle d'Aosta1 1
Veneto12 12

2022's centre-left did not include the M5S; under the campo largo line-up its collegi count as centre-left.

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