Italy General electionby 22 Dec 2027in 408 days Centre-left majority 62% No majority in the Camera 0% Calendar Track record Research
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New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →

Census map · Italy

Taxpayers with pension income by collegio

Taxpayers with pension income in every collegio in Italy: highest in Vercelli (Piemonte 2 - U03) (41.0%), lowest in Casoria (Campania 1 - U04) (26.3%); the middle collegio is at 34.1%. Of the fifth of collegi where it is highest, our forecast has Centre-right winning 16 of 29; where it is lowest, Centre-left wins 23 of 29.

Collegno (Piemonte 1 - U03): 37.0% Chieri (Piemonte 1 - U04): 37.7% Torino – Santa Rita (Piemonte 1 - U01): 33.6% Torino – San Paolo (Piemonte 1 - U02): 33.6% Moncalieri (Piemonte 1 - U05): 37.1% Cuneo (Piemonte 2 - U05): 36.7% Novara (Piemonte 2 - U02): 36.5% Vercelli (Piemonte 2 - U03): 41.0% Alessandria (Piemonte 2 - U01): 38.9% Asti (Piemonte 2 - U04): 37.0% Valle d'Aosta (Valle d'Aosta - U01): 35.0% Legnano (Lombardia 1 - U05): 34.3% Sesto San Giovanni (Lombardia 1 - U06): 33.6% Milano – Loreto (Lombardia 1 - U07): 27.5% Seregno (Lombardia 1 - U02): 33.1% Cologno Monzese (Lombardia 1 - U03): 31.1% Rozzano (Lombardia 1 - U04): 32.3% Milano – Bande Nere (Lombardia 1 - U08): 27.5% Milano – Buenos Aires (Lombardia 1 - U09): 27.5% Monza (Lombardia 1 - U01): 32.9% Como (Lombardia 2 - U03): 35.2% Lecco (Lombardia 2 - U05): 35.9% Busto Arsizio (Lombardia 2 - U02): 35.0% Sondrio (Lombardia 2 - U04): 36.7% Varese (Lombardia 2 - U01): 37.9% Treviglio (Lombardia 3 - U01): 31.4% Lumezzane (Lombardia 3 - U03): 34.8% Bergamo (Lombardia 3 - U02): 35.3% Desenzano del Garda (Lombardia 3 - U05): 30.7% Brescia (Lombardia 3 - U04): 32.2% Lodi (Lombardia 4 - U02): 31.8% Pavia (Lombardia 4 - U01): 36.5% Cremona (Lombardia 4 - U03): 36.7% Mantova (Lombardia 4 - U04): 35.1% Bolzano/Bozen (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U03): 31.1% Bressanone/Brixen (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U04): 28.6% Rovereto (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U02): 33.2% Trento (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U01): 32.1% Belluno (Veneto 1 - U05): 37.4% Venezia (Veneto 1 - U01): 34.6% Chioggia (Veneto 1 - U02): 33.2% Treviso (Veneto 1 - U03): 32.4% Castelfranco Veneto (Veneto 1 - U04): 33.7% Bassano del Grappa (Veneto 2 - U04): 35.0% Villafranca di Verona (Veneto 2 - U07): 31.0% Padova (Veneto 2 - U03): 33.0% Verona (Veneto 2 - U06): 32.7% Rovigo (Veneto 2 - U01): 37.5% Vicenza (Veneto 2 - U05): 33.3% Selvazzano Dentro (Veneto 2 - U02): 32.0% Udine (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U02): 37.2% Pordenone (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U01): 36.3% Trieste (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U03): 37.1% Genova – Ponente (Liguria - U02): 36.5% La Spezia (Liguria - U04): 37.0% Savona (Liguria - U01): 37.7% Genova – Centro Est (Liguria - U03): 34.1% Ravenna (Emilia-Romagna - U08): 35.9% Modena (Emilia-Romagna - U04): 33.6% Bologna (Emilia-Romagna - U06): 31.6% Piacenza (Emilia-Romagna - U01): 35.2% Imola (Emilia-Romagna - U05): 36.3% Rimini (Emilia-Romagna - U11): 31.3% Forlì (Emilia-Romagna - U10): 34.9% Parma (Emilia-Romagna - U02): 32.3% Reggio nell'Emilia (Emilia-Romagna - U03): 33.3% Carpi (Emilia-Romagna - U07): 34.5% Ferrara (Emilia-Romagna - U09): 38.9% Firenze (Toscana - U07): 32.6% Grosseto (Toscana - U01): 36.1% Massa (Toscana - U02): 36.0% Pisa (Toscana - U04): 33.9% Scandicci (Toscana - U08): 34.8% Arezzo (Toscana - U09): 36.8% Lucca (Toscana - U03): 35.9% Prato (Toscana - U06): 32.4% Livorno (Toscana - U05): 35.3% Perugia (Umbria - U02): 36.4% Terni (Umbria - U01): 38.6% Ancona (Marche - U03): 36.2% Pesaro (Marche - U04): 35.0% Ascoli Piceno (Marche - U01): 36.9% Macerata (Marche - U02): 36.9% Roma – Municipio XI (Lazio 1 - U06): 29.3% Roma – Municipio XIV (Lazio 1 - U07): 30.9% Roma – Municipio X (Lazio 1 - U05): 30.3% Roma – Municipio I (Lazio 1 - U01): 30.9% Velletri (Lazio 1 - U08): 29.5% Roma – Municipio III (Lazio 1 - U02): 30.9% Roma – Municipio VII (Lazio 1 - U04): 30.8% Guidonia Montecelio (Lazio 1 - U09): 29.5% Roma – Municipio V (Lazio 1 - U03): 30.9% Frosinone (Lazio 2 - U04): 35.5% Viterbo (Lazio 2 - U01): 33.4% Latina (Lazio 2 - U03): 30.9% Terracina (Lazio 2 - U05): 33.6% Rieti (Lazio 2 - U02): 32.2% Pescara (Abruzzo - U02): 33.2% L'Aquila (Abruzzo - U03): 36.0% Chieti (Abruzzo - U01): 36.0% Campobasso (Molise - U01): 38.8% Torre del Greco (Campania 1 - U07): 30.3% Acerra (Campania 1 - U05): 29.2% Casoria (Campania 1 - U04): 26.3% Giugliano in Campania (Campania 1 - U01): 27.1% Napoli – San Carlo all'Arena (Campania 1 - U03): 30.5% Somma Vesuviana (Campania 1 - U06): 28.1% Napoli – Fuorigrotta (Campania 1 - U02): 30.5% Caserta (Campania 2 - U02): 30.4% Avellino (Campania 2 - U04): 35.9% Scafati (Campania 2 - U05): 29.5% Salerno (Campania 2 - U06): 32.2% Aversa (Campania 2 - U01): 27.6% Benevento (Campania 2 - U03): 38.1% Eboli (Campania 2 - U07): 35.5% Taranto (Puglia - U08): 36.2% Brindisi (Puglia - U07): 35.8% Galatina (Puglia - U10): 38.0% Foggia (Puglia - U01): 34.2% Andria (Puglia - U03): 29.3% Molfetta (Puglia - U04): 31.6% Altamura (Puglia - U06): 32.7% Lecce (Puglia - U09): 35.2% Cerignola (Puglia - U02): 32.6% Bari (Puglia - U05): 32.6% Potenza (Basilicata - U01): 36.4% Vibo Valentia (Calabria - U04): 37.5% Cosenza (Calabria - U02): 35.2% Reggio di Calabria (Calabria - U05): 39.5% Catanzaro (Calabria - U03): 37.2% Corigliano-Rossano (Calabria - U01): 36.6% Agrigento (Sicilia 1 - U05): 36.8% Marsala (Sicilia 1 - U06): 33.8% Palermo – Resuttana (Sicilia 1 - U02): 31.1% Bagheria (Sicilia 1 - U03): 35.8% Palermo – Sette Cannoli (Sicilia 1 - U01): 32.3% Gela (Sicilia 1 - U04): 35.0% Ragusa (Sicilia 2 - U01): 31.3% Messina (Sicilia 2 - U06): 36.3% Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto (Sicilia 2 - U05): 38.7% Catania (Sicilia 2 - U02): 30.7% Acireale (Sicilia 2 - U03): 30.7% Siracusa (Sicilia 2 - U04): 33.2% Carbonia (Sardegna - U02): 38.2% Nuoro (Sardegna - U03): 39.2% Cagliari (Sardegna - U01): 32.0% Sassari (Sardegna - U04): 33.1%
  • 26.3% – 31.1% (29)
  • 31.1% – 33.2% (29)
  • 33.2% – 35.2% (29)
  • 35.2% – 36.7% (29)
  • 36.7% – 41.0% (31)
One hexagon per collegio, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#CollegioTaxpayers with pension incomeProjected
1 Vercelli (Piemonte 2 - U03) 41.0%Centre-right
2 Reggio di Calabria (Calabria - U05) 39.5%Centre-right
3 Nuoro (Sardegna - U03) 39.2%Centre-left
4 Ferrara (Emilia-Romagna - U09) 38.9%Centre-right
5 Alessandria (Piemonte 2 - U01) 38.9%Centre-right
6 Campobasso (Molise - U01) 38.8%Centre-left
7 Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto (Sicilia 2 - U05) 38.7%Centre-left
8 Terni (Umbria - U01) 38.6%Centre-right
9 Carbonia (Sardegna - U02) 38.2%Centre-left
10 Benevento (Campania 2 - U03) 38.1%Centre-left
11 Galatina (Puglia - U10) 38.0%Centre-left
12 Varese (Lombardia 2 - U01) 37.9%Centre-right
13 Savona (Liguria - U01) 37.7%Centre-right
14 Chieri (Piemonte 1 - U04) 37.7%Centre-right
15 Rovigo (Veneto 2 - U01) 37.5%Centre-right

Lowest: the bottom 15

#CollegioTaxpayers with pension incomeProjected
147 Casoria (Campania 1 - U04) 26.3%Centre-left
146 Giugliano in Campania (Campania 1 - U01) 27.1%Centre-left
145 Milano – Buenos Aires (Lombardia 1 - U09) 27.5%Centre-left
144 Milano – Bande Nere (Lombardia 1 - U08) 27.5%Centre-left
143 Milano – Loreto (Lombardia 1 - U07) 27.5%Centre-left
142 Aversa (Campania 2 - U01) 27.6%Centre-left
141 Somma Vesuviana (Campania 1 - U06) 28.1%Centre-left
140 Bressanone/Brixen (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U04) 28.6%SVP
139 Acerra (Campania 1 - U05) 29.2%Centre-left
138 Andria (Puglia - U03) 29.3%Centre-left
137 Roma – Municipio XI (Lazio 1 - U06) 29.3%Centre-left
136 Scafati (Campania 2 - U05) 29.5%Centre-left
135 Guidonia Montecelio (Lazio 1 - U09) 29.5%Centre-right
134 Velletri (Lazio 1 - U08) 29.5%Centre-right
133 Roma – Municipio X (Lazio 1 - U05) 30.3%Centre-left
Every collegio (147), highest first
#CollegioRegionTaxpayers with pension incomeProjected
1 Vercelli (Piemonte 2 - U03) Piemonte41.0%Centre-right
2 Reggio di Calabria (Calabria - U05) Calabria39.5%Centre-right
3 Nuoro (Sardegna - U03) Sardegna39.2%Centre-left
4 Ferrara (Emilia-Romagna - U09) Emilia-Romagna38.9%Centre-right
5 Alessandria (Piemonte 2 - U01) Piemonte38.9%Centre-right
6 Campobasso (Molise - U01) Molise38.8%Centre-left
7 Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto (Sicilia 2 - U05) Sicilia38.7%Centre-left
8 Terni (Umbria - U01) Umbria38.6%Centre-right
9 Carbonia (Sardegna - U02) Sardegna38.2%Centre-left
10 Benevento (Campania 2 - U03) Campania38.1%Centre-left
11 Galatina (Puglia - U10) Puglia38.0%Centre-left
12 Varese (Lombardia 2 - U01) Lombardia37.9%Centre-right
13 Savona (Liguria - U01) Liguria37.7%Centre-right
14 Chieri (Piemonte 1 - U04) Piemonte37.7%Centre-right
15 Rovigo (Veneto 2 - U01) Veneto37.5%Centre-right
16 Vibo Valentia (Calabria - U04) Calabria37.5%Centre-right
17 Belluno (Veneto 1 - U05) Veneto37.4%Centre-right
18 Udine (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U02) Friuli-Venezia Giulia37.2%Centre-right
19 Catanzaro (Calabria - U03) Calabria37.2%Centre-left
20 Moncalieri (Piemonte 1 - U05) Piemonte37.1%Centre-left
21 Trieste (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U03) Friuli-Venezia Giulia37.1%Centre-left
22 Collegno (Piemonte 1 - U03) Piemonte37.0%Centre-left
23 Asti (Piemonte 2 - U04) Piemonte37.0%Centre-right
24 La Spezia (Liguria - U04) Liguria37.0%Centre-left
25 Macerata (Marche - U02) Marche36.9%Centre-right
26 Ascoli Piceno (Marche - U01) Marche36.9%Centre-right
27 Agrigento (Sicilia 1 - U05) Sicilia36.8%Centre-left
28 Arezzo (Toscana - U09) Toscana36.8%Centre-left
29 Cuneo (Piemonte 2 - U05) Piemonte36.7%Centre-right
30 Cremona (Lombardia 4 - U03) Lombardia36.7%Centre-right
31 Sondrio (Lombardia 2 - U04) Lombardia36.7%Centre-right
32 Corigliano-Rossano (Calabria - U01) Calabria36.6%Centre-left
33 Novara (Piemonte 2 - U02) Piemonte36.5%Centre-right
34 Genova – Ponente (Liguria - U02) Liguria36.5%Centre-left
35 Pavia (Lombardia 4 - U01) Lombardia36.5%Centre-right
36 Perugia (Umbria - U02) Umbria36.4%Centre-left
37 Potenza (Basilicata - U01) Basilicata36.4%Centre-left
38 Pordenone (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U01) Friuli-Venezia Giulia36.3%Centre-right
39 Imola (Emilia-Romagna - U05) Emilia-Romagna36.3%Centre-left
40 Messina (Sicilia 2 - U06) Sicilia36.3%Centre-left
41 Taranto (Puglia - U08) Puglia36.2%Centre-left
42 Ancona (Marche - U03) Marche36.2%Centre-left
43 Grosseto (Toscana - U01) Toscana36.1%Centre-left
44 L'Aquila (Abruzzo - U03) Abruzzo36.0%Centre-right
45 Massa (Toscana - U02) Toscana36.0%Centre-left
46 Chieti (Abruzzo - U01) Abruzzo36.0%Centre-left
47 Ravenna (Emilia-Romagna - U08) Emilia-Romagna35.9%Centre-left
48 Lecco (Lombardia 2 - U05) Lombardia35.9%Centre-right
49 Lucca (Toscana - U03) Toscana35.9%Centre-right
50 Avellino (Campania 2 - U04) Campania35.9%Centre-left
51 Brindisi (Puglia - U07) Puglia35.8%Centre-left
52 Bagheria (Sicilia 1 - U03) Sicilia35.8%Centre-left
53 Frosinone (Lazio 2 - U04) Lazio35.5%Centre-right
54 Eboli (Campania 2 - U07) Campania35.5%Centre-left
55 Bergamo (Lombardia 3 - U02) Lombardia35.3%Centre-right
56 Livorno (Toscana - U05) Toscana35.3%Centre-left
57 Cosenza (Calabria - U02) Calabria35.2%Centre-left
58 Lecce (Puglia - U09) Puglia35.2%Centre-left
59 Como (Lombardia 2 - U03) Lombardia35.2%Centre-right
60 Piacenza (Emilia-Romagna - U01) Emilia-Romagna35.2%Centre-right
61 Mantova (Lombardia 4 - U04) Lombardia35.1%Centre-right
62 Bassano del Grappa (Veneto 2 - U04) Veneto35.0%Centre-right
63 Valle d'Aosta (Valle d'Aosta - U01) Valle d'Aosta35.0%Centre-left
64 Pesaro (Marche - U04) Marche35.0%Centre-left
65 Gela (Sicilia 1 - U04) Sicilia35.0%Centre-left
66 Busto Arsizio (Lombardia 2 - U02) Lombardia35.0%Centre-right
67 Forlì (Emilia-Romagna - U10) Emilia-Romagna34.9%Centre-left
68 Scandicci (Toscana - U08) Toscana34.8%Centre-left
69 Lumezzane (Lombardia 3 - U03) Lombardia34.8%Centre-right
70 Venezia (Veneto 1 - U01) Veneto34.6%Centre-right
71 Carpi (Emilia-Romagna - U07) Emilia-Romagna34.5%Centre-left
72 Legnano (Lombardia 1 - U05) Lombardia34.3%Centre-right
73 Foggia (Puglia - U01) Puglia34.2%Centre-left
74 Genova – Centro Est (Liguria - U03) Liguria34.1%Centre-left
75 Pisa (Toscana - U04) Toscana33.9%Centre-left
76 Marsala (Sicilia 1 - U06) Sicilia33.8%Centre-left
77 Castelfranco Veneto (Veneto 1 - U04) Veneto33.7%Centre-right
78 Modena (Emilia-Romagna - U04) Emilia-Romagna33.6%Centre-left
79 Terracina (Lazio 2 - U05) Lazio33.6%Centre-right
80 Sesto San Giovanni (Lombardia 1 - U06) Lombardia33.6%Centre-left
81 Torino – Santa Rita (Piemonte 1 - U01) Piemonte33.6%Centre-left
82 Torino – San Paolo (Piemonte 1 - U02) Piemonte33.6%Centre-left
83 Viterbo (Lazio 2 - U01) Lazio33.4%Centre-right
84 Vicenza (Veneto 2 - U05) Veneto33.3%Centre-right
85 Reggio nell'Emilia (Emilia-Romagna - U03) Emilia-Romagna33.3%Centre-left
86 Pescara (Abruzzo - U02) Abruzzo33.2%Centre-left
87 Siracusa (Sicilia 2 - U04) Sicilia33.2%Centre-left
88 Chioggia (Veneto 1 - U02) Veneto33.2%Centre-right
89 Rovereto (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U02) Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol33.2%Centre-right
90 Seregno (Lombardia 1 - U02) Lombardia33.1%Centre-right
91 Sassari (Sardegna - U04) Sardegna33.1%Centre-left
92 Padova (Veneto 2 - U03) Veneto33.0%Centre-right
93 Monza (Lombardia 1 - U01) Lombardia32.9%Centre-right
94 Altamura (Puglia - U06) Puglia32.7%Centre-left
95 Verona (Veneto 2 - U06) Veneto32.7%Centre-right
96 Firenze (Toscana - U07) Toscana32.6%Centre-left
97 Bari (Puglia - U05) Puglia32.6%Centre-left
98 Cerignola (Puglia - U02) Puglia32.6%Centre-left
99 Prato (Toscana - U06) Toscana32.4%Centre-left
100 Treviso (Veneto 1 - U03) Veneto32.4%Centre-right
101 Rozzano (Lombardia 1 - U04) Lombardia32.3%Centre-right
102 Parma (Emilia-Romagna - U02) Emilia-Romagna32.3%Centre-left
103 Palermo – Sette Cannoli (Sicilia 1 - U01) Sicilia32.3%Centre-left
104 Rieti (Lazio 2 - U02) Lazio32.2%Centre-right
105 Brescia (Lombardia 3 - U04) Lombardia32.2%Centre-right
106 Salerno (Campania 2 - U06) Campania32.2%Centre-left
107 Trento (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U01) Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol32.1%Centre-left
108 Selvazzano Dentro (Veneto 2 - U02) Veneto32.0%Centre-right
109 Cagliari (Sardegna - U01) Sardegna32.0%Centre-left
110 Lodi (Lombardia 4 - U02) Lombardia31.8%Centre-right
111 Bologna (Emilia-Romagna - U06) Emilia-Romagna31.6%Centre-left
112 Molfetta (Puglia - U04) Puglia31.6%Centre-left
113 Treviglio (Lombardia 3 - U01) Lombardia31.4%Centre-right
114 Ragusa (Sicilia 2 - U01) Sicilia31.3%Centre-left
115 Rimini (Emilia-Romagna - U11) Emilia-Romagna31.3%Centre-left
116 Bolzano/Bozen (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U03) Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol31.1%SVP
117 Palermo – Resuttana (Sicilia 1 - U02) Sicilia31.1%Centre-left
118 Cologno Monzese (Lombardia 1 - U03) Lombardia31.1%Centre-left
119 Villafranca di Verona (Veneto 2 - U07) Veneto31.0%Centre-right
120 Roma – Municipio I (Lazio 1 - U01) Lazio30.9%Centre-left
121 Roma – Municipio III (Lazio 1 - U02) Lazio30.9%Centre-left
122 Roma – Municipio V (Lazio 1 - U03) Lazio30.9%Centre-left
123 Roma – Municipio XIV (Lazio 1 - U07) Lazio30.9%Centre-left
124 Latina (Lazio 2 - U03) Lazio30.9%Centre-right
125 Roma – Municipio VII (Lazio 1 - U04) Lazio30.8%Centre-left
126 Catania (Sicilia 2 - U02) Sicilia30.7%Centre-left
127 Desenzano del Garda (Lombardia 3 - U05) Lombardia30.7%Centre-right
128 Acireale (Sicilia 2 - U03) Sicilia30.7%Centre-left
129 Napoli – Fuorigrotta (Campania 1 - U02) Campania30.5%Centre-left
130 Napoli – San Carlo all'Arena (Campania 1 - U03) Campania30.5%Centre-left
131 Caserta (Campania 2 - U02) Campania30.4%Centre-left
132 Torre del Greco (Campania 1 - U07) Campania30.3%Centre-left
133 Roma – Municipio X (Lazio 1 - U05) Lazio30.3%Centre-left
134 Velletri (Lazio 1 - U08) Lazio29.5%Centre-right
135 Guidonia Montecelio (Lazio 1 - U09) Lazio29.5%Centre-right
136 Scafati (Campania 2 - U05) Campania29.5%Centre-left
137 Roma – Municipio XI (Lazio 1 - U06) Lazio29.3%Centre-left
138 Andria (Puglia - U03) Puglia29.3%Centre-left
139 Acerra (Campania 1 - U05) Campania29.2%Centre-left
140 Bressanone/Brixen (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U04) Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol28.6%SVP
141 Somma Vesuviana (Campania 1 - U06) Campania28.1%Centre-left
142 Aversa (Campania 2 - U01) Campania27.6%Centre-left
143 Milano – Loreto (Lombardia 1 - U07) Lombardia27.5%Centre-left
144 Milano – Bande Nere (Lombardia 1 - U08) Lombardia27.5%Centre-left
145 Milano – Buenos Aires (Lombardia 1 - U09) Lombardia27.5%Centre-left
146 Giugliano in Campania (Campania 1 - U01) Campania27.1%Centre-left
147 Casoria (Campania 1 - U04) Campania26.3%Centre-left