Saint-Sernin-lès-Lavaur: TOUS POUR ST SERNIN won the town hall in 2026; Marine Le Pen would lead here in 2027
Saint-Sernin-lès-Lavaur (Tarn, INSEE 81270) has 127 registered voters. Its council has 11 seats; the 2026 municipal election was settled in the first round on 15 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.
- 127registered voters
- 55%turnout, 2026 round one
- 51.1%Marine Le Pen, 2027 round one here (France: 34.2%)
The municipal election, March 2026
Round one, 15 March · 70 voted, 66 valid votes
- TOUS POUR ST SERNINNo label (small commune) 100.0% · 66 · 11 seats
Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.
What if the national vote changes? Every commune
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
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What changes hands
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About Saint-Sernin-lès-Lavaur
Saint-Sernin-lès-Lavaur is a commune in Tarn with 127 registered voters, the 257th largest of the département's 314 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 55.1% of them voted, fewer than the 62.4% across Tarn, and TOUS POUR ST SERNIN won 11 of the council's 11 seats in the first round.
In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted National Rally 33.7%, Others 15.8%, France Unbowed 14.9%. Ensemble (Macron camp) did 16 points worse here than across France.
Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Marine Le Pen ahead on 51.1%, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 11.4%.
The 2027 presidential election here, round one
Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Saint-Sernin-lès-Lavaur from how it voted in 2022.
- Marine Le PenNational Rally 51.1% · France 34.2%
- Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 11.4% · France 16.8%
- Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 9.8% · France 7.6%
- Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 9.0% · France 13.4%
- Éric ZemmourReconquête 7.6% · France 3.8%
- Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 6.4% · France 14.3%
- Marine TondelierGreens 2.6% · France 2.9%
- Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.1% · France 2.1%
- Fabien RousselCommunist Party 0.9% · France 2.0%
In 2022, round one here: National Rally 33.7% · Others 15.8% · France Unbowed 14.9% · Ensemble (Macron camp) 11.9% · Reconquête 11.9%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →
Communes of a similar size in Tarn
- Maurens-Scopont126 voters · No label (small commune)
- Belleserre129 voters · No label (small commune)
- Laboulbène129 voters · No label (small commune)
- Lédas-et-Penthiès129 voters · No label (small commune)
- Massals125 voters · No label (small commune)
- Arifat132 voters · No label (small commune)
- Sauveterre132 voters · No label (small commune)
- Vindrac-Alayrac133 voters · No label (small commune)