Montabard: Vivre Heureux à Montabard won the town hall in 2026; Marine Le Pen would lead here in 2027
Montabard (Orne, INSEE 61283) has 234 registered voters. Its council has 11 seats; the 2026 municipal election was settled in the first round on 15 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.
- 234registered voters
- 77%turnout, 2026 round one
- 46.7%Marine Le Pen, 2027 round one here (France: 34.2%)
The municipal election, March 2026
Round one, 15 March · 181 voted, 177 valid votes
- Vivre Heureux à MontabardNo label (small commune) 57.1% · 101 · 9 seats
- S'EPANOUIR A MONTABARDNo label (small commune) 42.9% · 76 · 2 seats
Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.
What if the national vote changes? Every commune
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last presidential election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Montabard
Montabard is a commune in Orne with 234 registered voters, the 174th largest of the département's 381 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 77.4% of them voted, more than the 58.1% across Orne, and Vivre Heureux à Montabard won 9 of the council's 11 seats in the first round.
In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted National Rally 31.4%, Ensemble (Macron camp) 28%, France Unbowed 10.3%. France Unbowed did 12 points worse here than across France.
Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Marine Le Pen ahead on 46.7%, with Édouard Philippe on 14.7%.
The 2027 presidential election here, round one
Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Montabard from how it voted in 2022.
- Marine Le PenNational Rally 46.7% · France 34.2%
- Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 14.7% · France 14.3%
- Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 8.7% · France 13.4%
- Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 8.5% · France 7.6%
- Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 7.7% · France 16.8%
- Éric ZemmourReconquête 4.5% · France 3.8%
- Marine TondelierGreens 3.8% · France 2.9%
- Nathalie ArthaudFar left 2.1% · France 0.6%
- Fabien RousselCommunist Party 2.1% · France 2.0%
- Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.3% · France 2.1%
In 2022, round one here: National Rally 31.4% · Ensemble (Macron camp) 28.0% · France Unbowed 10.3% · Reconquête 8.0% · Greens 5.7%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →
Communes of a similar size in Orne
- Lougé-sur-Maire234 voters · No label (small commune)
- La Gonfrière233 voters · No label (small commune)
- Neuilly-le-Bisson232 voters · No label (small commune)
- Saint-Hilaire-sur-Risle237 voters · No label (small commune)
- Aunou-sur-Orne231 voters · No label (small commune)
- Villiers-sous-Mortagne231 voters · No label (small commune)
- Durcet230 voters · No label (small commune)
- Suré230 voters · No label (small commune)