France Prochaine élection18 avr 2027dans 167 jours Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendrier Bilan des sondages Recherche
PollingForecast.com France
EN FR
Closest
France · Every commune · Guadeloupe

Baie-Mahault: Michel Mado's list won the town hall in 2026; Jean-Luc Mélenchon would lead here in 2027

Baie-Mahault (Guadeloupe, INSEE 97103) has 23,404 registered voters. Its council has 39 seats; the 2026 municipal election went to a second round on 22 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.

The municipal election, March 2026

Round two, 22 March · 12,244 voted, 11,812 valid votes

  1. LE COEUR BAIE-MAHAULTIENLed by Michel Mado · Miscellaneous centre 54.8% · 6,476 · 31 seats
  2. L'ALLIANCE DEMOCRATIQUELed by Ary Chalus · Miscellaneous 34.0% · 4,021 · 6 seats
  3. LA FORCE DU RENOUVEAULed by Sylvie Chammougom Anno · Miscellaneous left 11.1% · 1,315 · 2 seats

Round one, 15 March · 11,225 voted, 10,573 valid votes

  1. L'ALLIANCE DEMOCRATIQUEMiscellaneous 32.5% · 3,436
  2. LE COEUR BAIE-MAHAULTIENMiscellaneous centre 30.6% · 3,235
  3. LA FORCE DU RENOUVEAUMiscellaneous left 19.7% · 2,080
  4. OSONS LE CHANGEMENT ENSEMBLEMiscellaneous 6.8% · 723
  5. BAIE-MAHAULT MERITE MIEUXMiscellaneous 6.8% · 720
  6. VISION CITOYENNE BAIE MAHAULTMiscellaneous centre 3.6% · 379

Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every commune

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last presidential election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Baie-Mahault

Baie-Mahault is a commune in Guadeloupe with 23,404 registered voters, the 2nd largest of the département's 32 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 48% of them voted, fewer than the 52.4% across Guadeloupe, and the list led by Michel Mado won 31 of the council's 39 seats after a second round.

In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted France Unbowed 55.1%, National Rally 14.9%, Ensemble (Macron camp) 14.8%. France Unbowed did 33 points better here than across France.

Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Jean-Luc Mélenchon ahead on 43%, with Marine Le Pen on 24%.

The 2027 presidential election here, round one

Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Baie-Mahault from how it voted in 2022.

  1. Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 43.0% · France 16.8%
  2. Marine Le PenNational Rally 24.0% · France 34.2%
  3. Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 13.5% · France 13.4%
  4. Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 7.4% · France 14.3%
  5. Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 6.4% · France 7.6%
  6. Éric ZemmourReconquête 1.9% · France 3.8%
  7. Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.8% · France 2.1%
  8. Marine TondelierGreens 1.1% · France 2.9%
  9. Nathalie ArthaudFar left 0.5% · France 0.6%

In 2022, round one here: France Unbowed 55.1% · National Rally 14.9% · Ensemble (Macron camp) 14.8% · Republicans 3.8% · Reconquête 3.7%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →

Communes of a similar size in Guadeloupe

Every commune in Guadeloupe → · All of France →