Valence-sur-Baïse: Mathieu Duffillol's list won the town hall in 2026; Marine Le Pen would lead here in 2027
Valence-sur-Baïse (Gers, INSEE 32459) has 850 registered voters. Its council has 15 seats; the 2026 municipal election went to a second round on 22 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.
- 850registered voters
- 80%turnout, 2026 round one
- 34.6%Marine Le Pen, 2027 round one here (France: 34.2%)
The municipal election, March 2026
Round two, 22 March · 680 voted, 666 valid votes
- AVEC VOUSLed by Mathieu Duffillol · No label (small commune) 56.0% · 373 · 12 seats
- POURSUIVONS NOTRE ELAN POUR BÂTIR L'AVENIRLed by Marie-Thérèse Broca-Lannaud · No label (small commune) 44.0% · 293 · 3 seats
Round one, 15 March · 679 voted, 662 valid votes
- POURSUIVONS NOTRE ELAN POUR BÂTIR L'AVENIRNo label (small commune) 37.2% · 246
- AVEC VOUSNo label (small commune) 34.6% · 229
- AVANÇONS ENSEMBLE POUR VALENCENo label (small commune) 28.2% · 187
Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.
What if the national vote changes? Every commune
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last presidential election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Valence-sur-Baïse
Valence-sur-Baïse is a commune in Gers with 850 registered voters, the 33rd largest of the département's 458 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 79.9% of them voted, more than the 66.1% across Gers, and the list led by Mathieu Duffillol won 12 of the council's 15 seats after a second round.
In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted Ensemble (Macron camp) 26.5%, National Rally 22.1%, France Unbowed 16.3%. Others did 8 points better here than across France.
Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Marine Le Pen ahead on 34.6%, with Raphaël Glucksmann on 20.8%.
The 2027 presidential election here, round one
Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Valence-sur-Baïse from how it voted in 2022.
- Marine Le PenNational Rally 34.6% · France 34.2%
- Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 20.8% · France 13.4%
- Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 13.8% · France 14.3%
- Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 12.2% · France 16.8%
- Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 8.7% · France 7.6%
- Éric ZemmourReconquête 3.9% · France 3.8%
- Fabien RousselCommunist Party 2.0% · France 2.0%
- Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.9% · France 2.1%
- Marine TondelierGreens 1.0% · France 2.9%
- Nathalie ArthaudFar left 1.0% · France 0.6%
In 2022, round one here: Ensemble (Macron camp) 26.5% · National Rally 22.1% · France Unbowed 16.3% · Others 10.9% · Reconquête 7.3%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →
Communes of a similar size in Gers
- Saint-Clar850 voters · No label (small commune)
- Miélan865 voters · No label (small commune)
- Castéra-Verduzan835 voters · No label (small commune)
- Ségoufielle867 voters · No label (small commune)
- Le Houga875 voters · No label (small commune)
- Seissan884 voters · No label (small commune)
- Montréal893 voters · No label (small commune)
- Marciac894 voters · No label (small commune)