Saint-Paul-de-Baïse: ENSEMBLE POUR SAINT-PAUL won the town hall in 2026; Marine Le Pen would lead here in 2027
Saint-Paul-de-Baïse (Gers, INSEE 32402) has 97 registered voters. Its council has 11 seats; the 2026 municipal election was settled in the first round on 15 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.
- 97registered voters
- 72%turnout, 2026 round one
- 21.2%Marine Le Pen, 2027 round one here (France: 34.2%)
The municipal election, March 2026
Round one, 15 March · 70 voted, 67 valid votes
- ENSEMBLE POUR SAINT-PAULNo label (small commune) 100.0% · 67 · 11 seats
Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.
What if the national vote changes? Every commune
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
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What changes hands
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About Saint-Paul-de-Baïse
Saint-Paul-de-Baïse is a commune in Gers with 97 registered voters, the 337th largest of the département's 458 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 72.2% of them voted, more than the 66.1% across Gers, and ENSEMBLE POUR SAINT-PAUL won 11 of the council's 11 seats in the first round.
In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted Ensemble (Macron camp) 32.9%, France Unbowed 12.3%, Others 11%. National Rally did 12 points worse here than across France.
Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Marine Le Pen ahead on 21.2%, with Édouard Philippe on 19.6%.
The 2027 presidential election here, round one
Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Saint-Paul-de-Baïse from how it voted in 2022.
- Marine Le PenNational Rally 21.2% · France 34.2%
- Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 19.6% · France 14.3%
- Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 18.0% · France 13.4%
- Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 17.4% · France 7.6%
- Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 9.8% · France 16.8%
- Marine TondelierGreens 6.2% · France 2.9%
- Éric ZemmourReconquête 4.9% · France 3.8%
- Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.6% · France 2.1%
- Fabien RousselCommunist Party 1.3% · France 2.0%
In 2022, round one here: Ensemble (Macron camp) 32.9% · France Unbowed 12.3% · Others 11.0% · National Rally 11.0% · Republicans 11.0%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →
Communes of a similar size in Gers
- Homps97 voters · No label (small commune)
- Betplan98 voters · No label (small commune)
- Ponsampère98 voters · No label (small commune)
- Fustérouau96 voters · No label (small commune)
- Malabat96 voters · No label (small commune)
- Saint-André96 voters · No label (small commune)
- Tourdun96 voters · No label (small commune)
- Monclar-sur-Losse99 voters · No label (small commune)