Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Ontígola: no list would have a majority, VOX largest

Ontígola (Toledo, 4,752 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

VOX+2
5 councillors (2023: 3) · 40.4% of the vote (2023: 30.7%) Majority 12%
PSOE−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 35.6% of the vote (2023: 42.5%) Majority 4%
PP−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 22.1% of the vote (2023: 24.8%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 84% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. VOXVox 30.7% → 40.4% 3 → 5 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 42.5% → 35.6% 5 → 4 councillors
  3. PPPP 24.8% → 22.1% 3 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,094 valid votes including 41 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Ontígola in size, in Toledo

Every municipality in Toledo → · All of Spain →