Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Ocaña: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Ocaña (Toledo, 13,185 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
7 councillors (2023: 8) · 36.9% of the vote (2023: 41.7%) Majority 3%
PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 29.3% of the vote (2023: 30.8%) Majority under 1%
VOX+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 24.6% of the vote (2023: 16.6%) Majority 0%
AQUI AHORA±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.0% of the vote (2023: 6.8%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 96% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Ocaña

Ocaña is a municipality in the province of Toledo with 13,185 inhabitants, the 6th largest of its 204 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE came first with 41.7% of the vote and 8 seats; PP was second with 5. 61.1% of the 8,076 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE would be largest on 7 of 17.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 41.7% → 36.9% 8 → 7 councillors
  2. PPPP 30.8% → 29.3% 5 → 5 councillors
  3. VOXVox 16.6% → 24.6% 3 → 4 councillors
  4. AQUI AHORALocal lists 6.8% → 7.0% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. CONTIGOLocal lists 0.9% → 0.9% 0 → 0 councillors
  6. UNIDAS-PODEMOS-IUSumar, Podemos and allies 2.2% → 0.2% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 4,936 valid votes including 52 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Ocaña in size, in Toledo

Every municipality in Toledo → · All of Spain →