Belvís de la Jara: PP would keep its majority
Belvís de la Jara (Toledo, 1,497 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 9councillors, 5 for a majority
- 82%PP majority
- 1,022valid votes in 2023 (83% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Belvís de la Jara
Belvís de la Jara is a municipality in the province of Toledo with 1,497 inhabitants, the 102nd largest of its 204 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PP came first with 52.3% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 4. 83% of the 1,232 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 5 seats, a majority, which it holds in 82% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 52.3% → 54.0% 5 → 5 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 43.5% → 41.5% 4 → 4 councillors
- AQUI AHORALocal lists 3.4% → 3.7% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,022 valid votes including 8 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.