Aldeanueva de San Bartolomé: VOX would win a majority
Aldeanueva de San Bartolomé (Toledo, 416 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 91%VOX majority
- 285valid votes in 2023 (80% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 1% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Aldeanueva de San Bartolomé
Aldeanueva de San Bartolomé is a municipality in the province of Toledo with 416 inhabitants, the 158th largest of its 204 municipalities. Its council has 7 seats, and 4 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PSOE came first with 44.2% of the vote and 3 seats; VOX was second with 3. 79.6% of the 358 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps VOX on 4 seats, a majority, which it holds in 91% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- VOXVox 42.1% → 53.7% 3 → 4 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 44.2% → 36.7% 3 → 3 councillors
- I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 11.9% → 8.2% 1 → 0 councillors
- PPPP 0.4% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 285 valid votes including 4 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.