Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Arahal: no list would have a majority, CON ANDALUCIA largest

Arahal (Sevilla, 19,476 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CON ANDALUCIA−1
7 councillors (2023: 8) · 39.0% of the vote (2023: 42.5%) Majority 12%
PSOE-A±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 29.6% of the vote (2023: 31.2%) Majority 0%
PP±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 19.2% of the vote (2023: 18.9%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 6.1% of the vote (2023: 1.8%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 88% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Arahal

Arahal is a municipality in the province of Sevilla with 19,476 inhabitants, the 18th largest of its 106 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 CON ANDALUCIA came first with 42.5% of the vote and 8 seats; PSOE-A was second with 6. 64.8% of the 15,467 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: CON ANDALUCIA would be largest on 7 of 17.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CON ANDALUCIASumar, Podemos and allies 42.5% → 39.0% 8 → 7 councillors
  2. PSOE-APSOE 31.2% → 29.6% 6 → 6 councillors
  3. PPPP 18.9% → 19.2% 3 → 3 councillors
  4. VOXVox 1.8% → 6.1% 0 → 1 councillors
  5. CSCiudadanos 3.9% → 4.3% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 10,026 valid votes including 179 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arahal in size, in Sevilla

Every municipality in Sevilla → · All of Spain →