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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Segovia

El Espinar: no list would have a majority, PP largest

El Espinar (Segovia, 9,662 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 43.5% of the vote (2023: 44.1%) Majority 55%
PSOE±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 20.0% of the vote (2023: 23.1%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 13.0% of the vote (2023: 7.3%) Majority 0%
AHORA SI±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.9% of the vote (2023: 6.6%) Majority 0%
I.U.±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.6% of the vote (2023: 9.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 45% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About El Espinar

El Espinar is a municipality in the province of Segovia with 9,662 inhabitants, the 2nd largest of its 208 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 44.1% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 3. 65% of the 7,094 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 6 of 13.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 44.1% → 43.5% 7 → 6 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 23.1% → 20.0% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. VOXVox 7.3% → 13.0% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. AHORA SILocal lists 6.6% → 6.9% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 9.3% → 6.6% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. VNELocal lists 5.9% → 6.2% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. EL ESPINAR AVANZALocal lists 1.8% → 1.9% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. CSCiudadanos 0.6% → 0.7% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 4,613 valid votes including 59 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near El Espinar in size, in Segovia

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