Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Spain
EN ES
Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Santa Cruz de Tenerife

La Orotava: CCA would keep its majority

La Orotava (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 42,434 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CCA−1
12 councillors (2023: 13) · 48.7% of the vote (2023: 53.7%) Majority 72%
PSOE−1
3 councillors (2023: 4) · 15.7% of the vote (2023: 17.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 12.2% of the vote (2023: 11.9%) Majority 0%
ASAMBLEA POR LA OROTAVA±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 11.7% of the vote (2023: 10.2%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
2 councillors (2023: 0) · 8.8% of the vote (2023: 3.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 28% of 300 simulated elections.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About La Orotava

La Orotava is a municipality in the province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife with 42,434 inhabitants, the 6th largest of its 54 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 CCA came first with 53.7% of the vote and 13 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 4. 67.1% of the 34,435 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps CCA on 12 seats, a majority, which it holds in 72% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CCACoalición Canaria 53.7% → 48.7% 13 → 12 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 17.1% → 15.7% 4 → 3 councillors
  3. PPPP 11.9% → 12.2% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. ASAMBLEA POR LA OROTAVALocal lists 10.2% → 11.7% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. VOXVox 3.4% → 8.8% 0 → 2 councillors
  6. NC-FACLocal lists 1.5% → 1.8% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. PODEMOSSumar, Podemos and allies 1.1% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 23,093 valid votes including 262 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near La Orotava in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

Every municipality in Santa Cruz de Tenerife → · All of Spain →