Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Garafía: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Garafía (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 1,830 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 39.8% of the vote (2023: 37.4%) Majority 22%
PSOE+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 36.0% of the vote (2023: 36.9%) Majority 8%
CCA−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 17.2% of the vote (2023: 19.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 70% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 37.4% → 39.8% 4 → 4 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 36.9% → 36.0% 3 → 4 councillors
  3. CCACoalición Canaria 19.4% → 17.2% 2 → 1 councillors
  4. NC-FACLocal lists 5.2% → 5.8% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 932 valid votes including 10 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Garafía in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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