Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Barlovento: PP would keep its majority

Barlovento (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 1,897 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 58.4% of the vote (2023: 54.7%) Majority 97%
PSOE±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 25.0% of the vote (2023: 26.5%) Majority 0%
CCA±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 15.9% of the vote (2023: 18.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 3% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 54.7% → 58.4% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 26.5% → 25.0% 2 → 2 councillors
  3. CCACoalición Canaria 18.0% → 15.9% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,266 valid votes including 10 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Barlovento in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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