Marcilla: UPN would win a majority
Marcilla (Navarra, 2,879 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 56%UPN majority
- 1,568valid votes in 2023 (77% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 36% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Marcilla
Marcilla is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 2,879 inhabitants, the 42nd largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 UPN came first with 43.9% of the vote and 5 seats; PSN-PSOE was second with 5. 76.7% of the 2,045 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps UPN on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 56% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- UPNUPN 43.9% → 46.2% 5 → 6 councillors
- PSN-PSOEPSOE 41.1% → 37.7% 5 → 4 councillors
- CONTIGOSumar, Podemos and allies 12.3% → 9.4% 1 → 1 councillors
- VOXVox 1.3% → 5.2% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,568 valid votes including 22 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.