Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Abanilla: PP would keep its majority

Abanilla (Murcia, 6,146 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
7 councillors (2023: 7) · 45.6% of the vote (2023: 46.5%) Majority 50%
PSOE−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 38.4% of the vote (2023: 42.5%) Majority 9%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 10.0% of the vote (2023: 5.1%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 41% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 46.5% → 45.6% 7 → 7 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 42.5% → 38.4% 6 → 5 councillors
  3. VOXVox 5.1% → 10.0% 0 → 1 councillors
  4. IUMALocal lists 4.9% → 5.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,738 valid votes including 38 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Abanilla in size, in Murcia

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