Abanilla: PP would keep its majority
Abanilla (Murcia, 6,146 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 50%PP majority
- 3,738valid votes in 2023 (76% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PP±0
7
councillors (2023: 7) · 45.6% of the vote (2023: 46.5%)
Majority 50%
PSOE−1
5
councillors (2023: 6) · 38.4% of the vote (2023: 42.5%)
Majority 9%
VOX+1
1
councillors (2023: 0) · 10.0% of the vote (2023: 5.1%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 41% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 46.5% → 45.6% 7 → 7 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 42.5% → 38.4% 6 → 5 councillors
- VOXVox 5.1% → 10.0% 0 → 1 councillors
- IUMALocal lists 4.9% → 5.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,738 valid votes including 38 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.