Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Valdetorres de Jarama: no list would have a majority, APV largest

Valdetorres de Jarama (Madrid, 4,830 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

APV−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 43.7% of the vote (2023: 42.0%) Majority 49%
PP±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 24.8% of the vote (2023: 25.6%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 11.4% of the vote (2023: 6.1%) Majority 0%
VIV±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 8.4% of the vote (2023: 8.0%) Majority 0%
PSOE±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.8% of the vote (2023: 10.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 51% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Valdetorres de Jarama

Valdetorres de Jarama is a municipality in the province of Madrid with 4,830 inhabitants, the 83rd largest of its 179 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 APV came first with 42% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 3. 70.8% of the 3,640 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: APV would be largest on 5 of 11.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. APVLocal lists 42.0% → 43.7% 6 → 5 councillors
  2. PPPP 25.6% → 24.8% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. VOXVox 6.1% → 11.4% 0 → 1 councillors
  4. VIVLocal lists 8.0% → 8.4% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. PSOEPSOE 10.5% → 7.8% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. MM-VQ VALDETORRES DE JARAMASumar, Podemos and allies 5.5% → 3.2% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. PODEMOS-IUSumar, Podemos and allies 1.6% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,578 valid votes including 19 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Valdetorres de Jarama in size, in Madrid

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