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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Madrid

Estremera: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Estremera (Madrid, 1,410 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
3 councillors (2023: 4) · 35.2% of the vote (2023: 40.3%) Majority 3%
PP±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 27.4% of the vote (2023: 29.2%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 20.0% of the vote (2023: 13.2%) Majority 0%
INDEPENDIENTES POR ESTREMERA±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 16.5% of the vote (2023: 16.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 97% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Estremera

Estremera is a municipality in the province of Madrid with 1,410 inhabitants, the 128th largest of its 179 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE came first with 40.3% of the vote and 4 seats; PP was second with 3. 67.6% of the 1,090 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE would be largest on 3 of 9.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 40.3% → 35.2% 4 → 3 councillors
  2. PPPP 29.2% → 27.4% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. VOXVox 13.2% → 20.0% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. INDEPENDIENTES POR ESTREMERALocal lists 16.4% → 16.5% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 737 valid votes including 7 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Estremera in size, in Madrid

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