Naut Aran: CDA-PNA would keep its majority
Naut Aran (Lleida, 1,923 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 9councillors, 5 for a majority
- 96%CDA-PNA majority
- 1,053valid votes in 2023 (71% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 4% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Naut Aran
Naut Aran is a municipality in the province of Lleida with 1,923 inhabitants, the 40th largest of its 231 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 CDA-PNA came first with 53.7% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; UA-PSC-CP was second with 3. 71.2% of the 1,479 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps CDA-PNA on 5 seats, a majority, which it holds in 96% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- CDA-PNALocal lists 53.7% → 53.0% 5 → 5 councillors
- UA-PSC-CPPSOE 32.2% → 27.2% 3 → 3 councillors
- AA-AMERC 9.9% → 12.1% 1 → 1 councillors
- VOXVox 0.9% → 4.4% 0 → 0 councillors
- PRAGLocal lists 2.8% → 2.8% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,053 valid votes including 5 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.