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Bembibre: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Bembibre (León, 8,279 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 33.7% of the vote (2023: 37.6%) Majority 5%
PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 30.1% of the vote (2023: 31.0%) Majority 0%
X BEMBIBRE+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 12.9% of the vote (2023: 12.4%) Majority 0%
C. BIERZO±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.1% of the vote (2023: 8.8%) Majority 0%
U.P.L.±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.5% of the vote (2023: 6.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 95% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Bembibre

Bembibre is a municipality in the province of León with 8,279 inhabitants, the 7th largest of its 211 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE came first with 37.6% of the vote and 6 seats; PP was second with 4. 61.2% of the 6,965 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE would be largest on 5 of 13.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 37.6% → 33.7% 6 → 5 councillors
  2. PPPP 31.0% → 30.1% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. X BEMBIBRELocal lists 12.4% → 12.9% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. C. BIERZOLocal lists 8.8% → 9.1% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. U.P.L.Local lists 6.2% → 6.5% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. VOXVox 1.3% → 5.2% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. BCLocal lists 1.4% → 1.5% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 4,260 valid votes including 52 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Bembibre in size, in León

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