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Villanueva del Arzobispo: no list would have a majority, AXV largest

Villanueva del Arzobispo (Jaén, 7,968 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

AXV±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 26.1% of the vote (2023: 26.2%) Majority 0%
PP±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 21.4% of the vote (2023: 23.2%) Majority 0%
PSOE−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 17.5% of the vote (2023: 21.4%) Majority 0%
IV±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 17.1% of the vote (2023: 17.1%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 16.6% of the vote (2023: 10.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. AXVLocal lists 26.2% → 26.1% 4 → 4 councillors
  2. PPPP 23.2% → 21.4% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 21.4% → 17.5% 3 → 2 councillors
  4. IVLocal lists 17.1% → 17.1% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. VOXVox 10.6% → 16.6% 1 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,902 valid votes including 53 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Villanueva del Arzobispo in size, in Jaén

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