Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Vilches: PSOE would keep its majority

Vilches (Jaén, 4,317 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE±0
7 councillors (2023: 7) · 59.3% of the vote (2023: 58.1%) Majority 98%
I.U.±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 21.6% of the vote (2023: 23.7%) Majority 0%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 17.7% of the vote (2023: 16.9%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 2% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 58.1% → 59.3% 7 → 7 councillors
  2. I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 23.7% → 21.6% 2 → 2 councillors
  3. PPPP 16.9% → 17.7% 2 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,790 valid votes including 38 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Vilches in size, in Jaén

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