Mancha Real: PP would keep its majority
Mancha Real (Jaén, 11,350 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 93%PP majority
- 6,294valid votes in 2023 (71% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PP±0
10
councillors (2023: 10) · 56.3% of the vote (2023: 57.8%)
Majority 93%
PSOE−1
5
councillors (2023: 6) · 29.8% of the vote (2023: 33.9%)
Majority 0%
VOX+1
2
councillors (2023: 1) · 12.8% of the vote (2023: 7.3%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 7% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 57.8% → 56.3% 10 → 10 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 33.9% → 29.8% 6 → 5 councillors
- VOXVox 7.3% → 12.8% 1 → 2 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,294 valid votes including 64 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.