Arrasate/Mondragón: EH BILDU would win a majority
Arrasate/Mondragón (Gipuzkoa, 21,760 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 21councillors, 11 for a majority
- 73%EH BILDU majority
- 10,060valid votes in 2023 (59% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 27% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Arrasate/Mondragón
Arrasate/Mondragón is a municipality in the province of Gipuzkoa with 21,760 inhabitants, the 6th largest of its 88 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 42.8% of the vote and 10 seats; EAJ-PNV was second with 8. 59.4% of the 16,950 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps EH BILDU on 11 seats, a majority, which it holds in 73% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 42.8% → 50.7% 10 → 11 councillors
- EAJ-PNVPNV 34.5% → 31.3% 8 → 7 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 11.7% → 9.9% 2 → 2 councillors
- ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 7.5% → 5.5% 1 → 1 councillors
- PPPP 2.2% → 1.3% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 10,060 valid votes including 129 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.