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Piélagos: PP would keep its majority

Piélagos (Cantabria, 26,279 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP−1
12 councillors (2023: 13) · 52.0% of the vote (2023: 52.7%) Majority 90%
PSOE−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 17.5% of the vote (2023: 20.6%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
3 councillors (2023: 1) · 12.5% of the vote (2023: 6.9%) Majority 0%
@VIP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.3% of the vote (2023: 7.0%) Majority 0%
P.R.C.±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.3% of the vote (2023: 5.1%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 10% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Piélagos

Piélagos is a municipality in the province of Cantabria with 26,279 inhabitants, the 5th largest of its 102 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 52.7% of the vote and 13 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 5. 69.7% of the 20,245 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 12 seats, a majority, which it holds in 90% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 52.7% → 52.0% 13 → 12 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 20.6% → 17.5% 5 → 4 councillors
  3. VOXVox 6.9% → 12.5% 1 → 3 councillors
  4. @VIPLocal lists 7.0% → 7.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. P.R.C.Local lists 5.1% → 5.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. PODEMOS-IUSumar, Podemos and allies 4.7% → 2.5% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. CSCiudadanos 1.2% → 1.3% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 14,101 valid votes including 237 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Piélagos in size, in Cantabria

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