Ubrique: no list would have a majority, PP largest
Ubrique (Cádiz, 16,383 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 88%no list with a majority
- 9,370valid votes in 2023 (70% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 88% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Ubrique
Ubrique is a municipality in the province of Cádiz with 16,383 inhabitants, the 18th largest of its 45 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PSOE-A came first with 39.4% of the vote and 8 seats; PP was second with 7. 70.2% of the 13,350 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE-A would be largest on 7 of 17.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 39.1% → 38.7% 7 → 7 councillors
- PSOE-APSOE 39.4% → 35.9% 8 → 7 councillors
- UALocal lists 13.1% → 13.8% 2 → 2 councillors
- VOXVox 4.5% → 9.4% 0 → 1 councillors
- CSCiudadanos 1.2% → 1.3% 0 → 0 councillors
- IU ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 1.8% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,370 valid votes including 83 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.