Tarifa: no list would have a majority, PP largest
Tarifa (Cádiz, 18,564 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 98%no list with a majority
- 8,753valid votes in 2023 (61% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PP−1
6
councillors (2023: 7) · 33.2% of the vote (2023: 34.4%)
Majority 1%
PSOE−1
6
councillors (2023: 7) · 30.8% of the vote (2023: 34.8%)
Majority 1%
NAT+1
3
councillors (2023: 2) · 15.0% of the vote (2023: 14.6%)
Majority 0%
VOX+1
1
councillors (2023: 0) · 8.4% of the vote (2023: 3.9%)
Majority 0%
PARA LA GENTE±0
1
councillors (2023: 1) · 7.2% of the vote (2023: 7.0%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 98% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 34.4% → 33.2% 7 → 6 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 34.8% → 30.8% 7 → 6 councillors
- NATLocal lists 14.6% → 15.0% 2 → 3 councillors
- VOXVox 3.9% → 8.4% 0 → 1 councillors
- PARA LA GENTELocal lists 7.0% → 7.2% 1 → 1 councillors
- LVELocal lists 2.1% → 2.1% 0 → 0 councillors
- UALocal lists 1.7% → 1.7% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,753 valid votes including 134 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.