Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Paterna de Rivera: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Paterna de Rivera (Cádiz, 5,451 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 36.0% of the vote (2023: 36.8%) Majority 2%
UA±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 29.8% of the vote (2023: 28.8%) Majority 0%
PSOE-A±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 29.6% of the vote (2023: 33.3%) Majority under 1%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 98% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 36.8% → 36.0% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. UALocal lists 28.8% → 29.8% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. PSOE-APSOE 33.3% → 29.6% 4 → 4 councillors
  4. VOXVox 0.3% → 3.9% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,467 valid votes including 26 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Paterna de Rivera in size, in Cádiz

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