Lerma: PP would win a majority
Lerma (Burgos, 2,584 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 57%PP majority
- 1,289valid votes in 2023 (65% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Lerma
Lerma is a municipality in the province of Burgos with 2,584 inhabitants, the 8th largest of its 367 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PSOE came first with 49.7% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 5. 65.2% of the 1,978 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 57% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 48.1% → 49.9% 5 → 6 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 49.7% → 47.9% 6 → 5 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,289 valid votes including 29 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.