Sopela: EH BILDU would win a majority
Sopela (Bizkaia, 14,635 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 67%EH BILDU majority
- 6,686valid votes in 2023 (59% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 33% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Sopela
Sopela is a municipality in the province of Bizkaia with 14,635 inhabitants, the 17th largest of its 112 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 36.5% of the vote and 8 seats; EAJ-PNV was second with 6. 58.5% of the 11,422 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps EH BILDU on 9 seats, a majority, which it holds in 67% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 36.5% → 42.7% 8 → 9 councillors
- EAJ-PNVPNV 30.8% → 27.6% 6 → 5 councillors
- AVS/SAALocal lists 8.4% → 9.6% 1 → 2 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 7.2% → 5.0% 1 → 1 councillors
- ELKARREKIN PODEMOS - EZKER ANITZA / IU - BERDEAK ESumar, Podemos and allies 6.0% → 4.0% 1 → 0 councillors
- DB-TULocal lists 2.7% → 3.1% 0 → 0 councillors
- BBLocal lists 2.7% → 3.1% 0 → 0 councillors
- PPPP 3.5% → 2.7% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,686 valid votes including 143 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.