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Sopela: EH BILDU would win a majority

Sopela (Bizkaia, 14,635 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

EH BILDU+1
9 councillors (2023: 8) · 42.7% of the vote (2023: 36.5%) Majority 67%
EAJ-PNV−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 27.6% of the vote (2023: 30.8%) Majority 0%
AVS/SAA+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.6% of the vote (2023: 8.4%) Majority 0%
PSE-EE (PSOE)±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.0% of the vote (2023: 7.2%) Majority 0%
ELKARREKIN PODEMOS - EZKER ANITZA / IU - BERDEAK E−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 4.0% of the vote (2023: 6.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 33% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. EH BILDUEH Bildu 36.5% → 42.7% 8 → 9 councillors
  2. EAJ-PNVPNV 30.8% → 27.6% 6 → 5 councillors
  3. AVS/SAALocal lists 8.4% → 9.6% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 7.2% → 5.0% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. ELKARREKIN PODEMOS - EZKER ANITZA / IU - BERDEAK ESumar, Podemos and allies 6.0% → 4.0% 1 → 0 councillors
  6. DB-TULocal lists 2.7% → 3.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. BBLocal lists 2.7% → 3.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. PPPP 3.5% → 2.7% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,686 valid votes including 143 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Sopela in size, in Bizkaia

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