Bilbao: no list would have a majority, EAJ-PNV largest
Bilbao (Bizkaia, 344,127 inhabitants) elects 29 councillors on 23 May 2027; 15 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 29councillors, 15 for a majority
- over 99%no list with a majority
- 148,822valid votes in 2023 (56% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
EAJ-PNV−2
10
councillors (2023: 12) · 32.2% of the vote (2023: 36.6%)
Majority 0%
EH BILDU+1
7
councillors (2023: 6) · 21.8% of the vote (2023: 18.9%)
Majority 0%
PSE-EE (PSOE)−1
4
councillors (2023: 5) · 14.5% of the vote (2023: 16.4%)
Majority 0%
PP±0
4
councillors (2023: 4) · 12.0% of the vote (2023: 12.1%)
Majority 0%
VOX+2
2
councillors (2023: 0) · 8.5% of the vote (2023: 3.4%)
Majority 0%
ELKARREKIN PODEMOS - EZKER ANITZA / IU - BERDEAK E±0
2
councillors (2023: 2) · 5.9% of the vote (2023: 8.0%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (15 of 29). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EAJ-PNVPNV 36.6% → 32.2% 12 → 10 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 18.9% → 21.8% 6 → 7 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 16.4% → 14.5% 5 → 4 councillors
- PPPP 12.1% → 12.0% 4 → 4 councillors
- VOXVox 3.4% → 8.5% 0 → 2 councillors
- ELKARREKIN PODEMOS - EZKER ANITZA / IU - BERDEAK ESumar, Podemos and allies 8.0% → 5.9% 2 → 2 councillors
- PACMALocal lists 1.1% → 1.2% 0 → 0 councillors
- EB-AZLocal lists 0.6% → 0.7% 0 → 0 councillors
- PUM+JLocal lists 0.4% → 0.5% 0 → 0 councillors
- STOPLocal lists 0.3% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors
- CSCiudadanos 0.2% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors
- PCTELocal lists 0.2% → 0.2% 0 → 0 councillors
- PHLocal lists 0.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 148,822 valid votes including 2,689 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.