Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Amorebieta-Etxano: EH BILDU would win a majority

Amorebieta-Etxano (Bizkaia, 19,587 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

EH BILDU+2
9 councillors (2023: 7) · 46.9% of the vote (2023: 38.8%) Majority 59%
EAJ-PNV−1
7 councillors (2023: 8) · 40.3% of the vote (2023: 43.6%) Majority 19%
PSE-EE (PSOE)±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.7% of the vote (2023: 8.6%) Majority 0%
PODEMOS, EZKER ANITZA / IU, EQUO BERDEAK, ALIANZA−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 3.4% of the vote (2023: 5.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 22% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. EH BILDUEH Bildu 38.8% → 46.9% 7 → 9 councillors
  2. EAJ-PNVPNV 43.6% → 40.3% 8 → 7 councillors
  3. PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 8.6% → 6.7% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. PODEMOS, EZKER ANITZA / IU, EQUO BERDEAK, ALIANZASumar, Podemos and allies 5.2% → 3.4% 1 → 0 councillors
  5. PPPP 2.1% → 1.2% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,404 valid votes including 147 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Amorebieta-Etxano in size, in Bizkaia

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