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Olivella: no list would have a majority, PSC-CP largest

Olivella (Barcelona, 4,339 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSC-CP−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 39.6% of the vote (2023: 44.9%) Majority 19%
CM−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 21.8% of the vote (2023: 24.8%) Majority 0%
ERC - AM+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 18.0% of the vote (2023: 14.4%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 15.4% of the vote (2023: 9.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 81% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Olivella

Olivella is a municipality in the province of Barcelona with 4,339 inhabitants, the 138th largest of its 311 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSC-CP came first with 44.9% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; CM was second with 3. 50.2% of the 2,734 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSC-CP would be largest on 5 of 11.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSC-CPPSOE 44.9% → 39.6% 6 → 5 councillors
  2. CMJunts 24.8% → 21.8% 3 → 2 councillors
  3. ERC - AMERC 14.4% → 18.0% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. VOXVox 9.5% → 15.4% 1 → 2 councillors
  5. PPPP 4.7% → 3.6% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,372 valid votes including 23 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Olivella in size, in Barcelona

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