Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Aiguafreda: CM would keep its majority

Aiguafreda (Barcelona, 2,552 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CM±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 45.5% of the vote (2023: 52.3%) Majority 50%
VIU AIGUAFREDA ERC - AM+1
5 councillors (2023: 4) · 43.1% of the vote (2023: 34.9%) Majority 32%
PP−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.3% of the vote (2023: 8.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 18% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Aiguafreda

Aiguafreda is a municipality in the province of Barcelona with 2,552 inhabitants, the 171st largest of its 311 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 CM came first with 52.3% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; VIU AIGUAFREDA ERC - AM was second with 4. 54.9% of the 2,071 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps CM on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 50% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CMJunts 52.3% → 45.5% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. VIU AIGUAFREDA ERC - AMERC 34.9% → 43.1% 4 → 5 councillors
  3. PPPP 8.6% → 7.3% 1 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,136 valid votes including 47 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Aiguafreda in size, in Barcelona

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