Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

El Hoyo de Pinares: PP would keep its majority

El Hoyo de Pinares (Ávila, 2,169 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
7 councillors (2023: 7) · 59.4% of the vote (2023: 62.0%) Majority 98%
PSOE−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 21.0% of the vote (2023: 25.0%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 18.8% of the vote (2023: 12.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 2% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 62.0% → 59.4% 7 → 7 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 25.0% → 21.0% 3 → 2 councillors
  3. VOXVox 12.2% → 18.8% 1 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,191 valid votes including 9 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near El Hoyo de Pinares in size, in Ávila

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