Ayala/Aiara: no list would have a majority, EAJ-PNV largest
Ayala/Aiara (Araba/Álava, 2,921 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 89%no list with a majority
- 1,502valid votes in 2023 (65% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 89% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Ayala/Aiara
Ayala/Aiara is a municipality in the province of Araba/Álava with 2,921 inhabitants, the 8th largest of its 51 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EAJ-PNV came first with 43.9% of the vote and 5 seats; AIARA BATUZ was second with 3. 64.9% of the 2,316 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: EAJ-PNV would be largest on 5 of 11.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EAJ-PNVPNV 43.9% → 39.3% 5 → 5 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 24.0% → 28.1% 3 → 3 councillors
- AIARA BATUZLocal lists 24.2% → 27.7% 3 → 3 councillors
- PPPP 3.9% → 3.2% 0 → 0 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 2.3% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,502 valid votes including 25 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.