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Rioja: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Rioja (Almería, 1,510 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 37.3% of the vote (2023: 36.2%) Majority 9%
PSOE±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 30.7% of the vote (2023: 32.7%) Majority under 1%
CON ANDALUCÍA−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 25.7% of the vote (2023: 29.1%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 91% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Rioja

Rioja is a municipality in the province of Almería with 1,510 inhabitants, the 45th largest of its 103 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 36.2% of the vote and 3 seats; PSOE was second with 3. 79.9% of the 1,211 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 4 of 9.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 36.2% → 37.3% 3 → 4 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 32.7% → 30.7% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 29.1% → 25.7% 3 → 2 councillors
  4. VOXVox 1.6% → 5.7% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 967 valid votes including 5 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Rioja in size, in Almería

Every municipality in Almería → · All of Spain →