Carney tables his budget with the Liberals 15 points ahead
Four October polls put the Liberals 15 to 16.5 points clear of the Conservatives. Our projection gives them 235 of 343 seats, a majority in practically every simulation.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Mark Carney's government tables its second budget on Thursday 5 November, under the title "Maîtres chez nous". It does so from a position few governments enjoy a year and a half after an election. Every poll in October had the Liberals well ahead:
- Liaison Strategies (18 to 31 October): Liberals 45, Conservatives 30, NDP 14, Bloc 6
- Nanos Research (30 October): Liberals 45.4, Conservatives 28.9, NDP 13.6, Bloc 7.4
- Abacus Data (21 October): Liberals 48, Conservatives 32, NDP 9, Bloc 6
- Léger (12 October): Liberals 48, Conservatives 33, NDP 8, Bloc 6
Liaison also asked about the leaders: 64 per cent approve of Carney and 28 per cent disapprove. Pierre Poilievre is seen favourably by 33 per cent and unfavourably by 53.
Our projection
Our average has the Liberals on 46.2 per cent, 15.5 points ahead of the Conservatives. On those figures the Liberals win 235 of the 343 seats, a majority of 127. The Conservatives win 73, the Bloc Québécois 22, the NDP 11 and the Greens 2. A Liberal majority comes up in practically every one of our 5,000 simulations.
The Conservatives are down 9.9 points on the 2025 election. In Alberta, Liaison has them only 7 points ahead, 46 to 39.
The budget
Most forecasters expect deficits a little smaller than in the spring update, helped by higher oil prices. Poilievre has called on Carney to curb spending and end diesel taxes. The Liberals hold a majority in the Commons, so the budget is expected to pass.
The next federal election is due in October 2029.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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