Liberal lead dips in both new polls, but the majority holds
Liaison Strategies has the Liberals 13 points ahead and Nanos 19.5, both closer than the week before. Our projection trims Mark Carney's party to 238 seats, still a majority in more than 99 per cent of our simulations.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Two national polls have been published since our last round-up, and both have the Liberals a little lower than the week before. Liaison Strategies (fieldwork 11 to 24 October) had the Liberals on 44, the Conservatives 31, the NDP 14 and the Bloc Québécois 6. That is a 13-point lead, down from 15 a week earlier. Nanos Research (four weeks to 23 October) had the Liberals on 47.3, the Conservatives 27.8, the NDP 12.9 and the Bloc 7.5. Its Liberal figure is down 3.3 points on the week before, and its lead has narrowed from 22.3 points to 19.5.
Neither poll changes the picture. Our poll average now has the Liberals on 46.4, the Conservatives 30.7, the NDP 10.9 and the Bloc 6.3, a lead of 15.7 points.
The poll check
Nanos usually has the Conservatives about 2 points lower and the NDP about 2 points higher than other pollsters. Allowing for that, its 19.5-point Liberal lead comes down to about 18, and its NDP figure to about 11. Liaison usually has the NDP 1.4 points higher than other pollsters and both big parties slightly lower. On that reading its NDP comes down from 14 to about 12.6, and its Liberal lead barely moves, at about 13.5.
Our projection
If an election were held on today's polls, the Liberals would win 238 of 343 seats on 47.3 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives 69 on 31.4 per cent, the Bloc 22 and the NDP 12, with the Greens on 2. A week ago we had the Liberals on 246, the Conservatives 65, the Bloc 19 and the NDP 11. The Liberals still win a majority in more than 99 per cent of our simulations. The NDP needs 12 seats for official party status in the Commons, and reaches that in 47 per cent.
What comes next
The federal budget is tabled on 5 November. The Parliamentary Budget Officer expects deficits above $63 billion into 2030-31, so the first polls taken after it will show whether the Liberal lead survives the numbers.
The next federal election is due by 15 October 2029.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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